I would offer the counter-narrative that Putin's actions in the Ukraine have made it easier to attain the Paris accord agreements. In effect, Putin's actions have provided impetus to accelerate Europe's transition to renewables and to wean itself from dependency on Russian gas and oil. From what we are seeing now in the Ukraine, Putin's hold on power is the same as all petro-dictators in that it is a means to enrich oneself. Putin or his successors were never going to diplomatically relinquish the power that comes with controlling energy supply. Putin was never going to voluntarily accept the commitment required to reach 1.5C targets. Putin's actions have effectively moved forward the timeline for when the world needed to address recalcitrant players who would never commit to any meaningful action on CO2. Russia is isolated now, which makes it much easier to apply further economic and political pressure to decarbonize.
This related report just came out. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09062022/lng-exports-19-deals-war-in-ukraine/ All kinds of new LNG deals.
I would offer the counter-narrative that Putin's actions in the Ukraine have made it easier to attain the Paris accord agreements. In effect, Putin's actions have provided impetus to accelerate Europe's transition to renewables and to wean itself from dependency on Russian gas and oil. From what we are seeing now in the Ukraine, Putin's hold on power is the same as all petro-dictators in that it is a means to enrich oneself. Putin or his successors were never going to diplomatically relinquish the power that comes with controlling energy supply. Putin was never going to voluntarily accept the commitment required to reach 1.5C targets. Putin's actions have effectively moved forward the timeline for when the world needed to address recalcitrant players who would never commit to any meaningful action on CO2. Russia is isolated now, which makes it much easier to apply further economic and political pressure to decarbonize.